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Известный шоковый академик и давний ненавистник путинизма Андерс Ослунд уже во второй статье подряд считает необходимым, нарушая всяческий строй, перемежать обычную придирчивую ругань важными оговорками:
Paradoxically, Russia is doing very well economically. The wealth in Moscow is just astounding, not only with its 100 billionaires but also a vast middle class. Macro-economic data are stellar. The 2012 growth rate is expected to have been 3.6 per cent, while neighbouring Europe is mired in recession. Russia has a budget surplus and almost no public debt, a huge current account surplus and bulging international currency reserves. Admittedly, Russia thrives on large energy exports, but oil prices are high and likely to stay there.
Although there are many risks facing Russia, we should not forget positive factors, although they pale in comparison. Macroeconomic data remain stellar, and international reserves are huge. Russia's human capital is talented, and higher education is gradually being reformed. Accession to the World Trade Organization should speed up international economic integration and foreign direct investment. The euro crisis has abated, which may improve demand for Russian oil. But this will likely be offset by the shale gas revolution and Gazprom's dysfunction.
Paradoxically, Russia is doing very well economically. The wealth in Moscow is just astounding, not only with its 100 billionaires but also a vast middle class. Macro-economic data are stellar. The 2012 growth rate is expected to have been 3.6 per cent, while neighbouring Europe is mired in recession. Russia has a budget surplus and almost no public debt, a huge current account surplus and bulging international currency reserves. Admittedly, Russia thrives on large energy exports, but oil prices are high and likely to stay there.
Although there are many risks facing Russia, we should not forget positive factors, although they pale in comparison. Macroeconomic data remain stellar, and international reserves are huge. Russia's human capital is talented, and higher education is gradually being reformed. Accession to the World Trade Organization should speed up international economic integration and foreign direct investment. The euro crisis has abated, which may improve demand for Russian oil. But this will likely be offset by the shale gas revolution and Gazprom's dysfunction.